Gladsaxe Stadium · Referee M. Lykke · Analysis updated 12:52 UTC
AB Copenhagen vs Aalborg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for AB Copenhagen and 1.41 for Aalborg, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives AB Copenhagen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.1% probability
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AB Copenhagen home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aalborg away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AB Copenhagen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 24% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for AB Copenhagen and 1.41 for Aalborg, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–07.9%
- 1–27.9%
- 0–17.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.50 | 62.5% | 64.7% | 1.55 | +2.2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.35 | 38.6% | 39.8% | 2.51 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.24 | 40.9% | 41.9% | 2.39 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.76 | 33.2% | 33.9% | 2.95 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.25 | 41.6% | 42.3% | 2.36 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.42 | 65.5% | 66.1% | 1.51 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.60 | 58.2% | 58.1% | 1.72 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.3% | 75.8% | 1.32 | -0.5 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.60 | 58.4% | 57.7% | 1.73 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.48 | 61.4% | 60.2% | 1.66 | -1.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.55 | 25.8% | 24.2% | 4.13 | -1.6 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.50 | 37.5% | 35.3% | 2.83 | -2.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
AB Copenhagen
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolding IF · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs HB Koge · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Aarhus Fremad · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Esbjerg · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sonderjyske · 3-1 (W)
Aalborg
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Randers FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vendsyssel FF · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hvidovre · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs AB Copenhagen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs HB Koge · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hvidovre | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 28 |
| 2 | Vejle | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | FC Fredericia | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 20 |
| 4 | AB Copenhagen | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Aarhus Fremad | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 6 | Hobro | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 15 |
| 7 | Aalborg | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 | Kolding IF | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Hillerød | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | HB Koge | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 11 | Vendsyssel FF | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 12 | Esbjerg | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.