Gladsaxe Stadium · Referee J. Nielsen · Analysis updated 20:07 UTC
AB Copenhagen vs FC Fredericia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for AB Copenhagen and 1.09 for FC Fredericia, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives FC Fredericia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.2% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AB Copenhagen home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Fredericia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 0–113.4%
- 1–012.3%
- 0–012.3%
- 1–27.4%
Recent form
AB Copenhagen
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Esbjerg · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sonderjyske · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hillerød · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalborg · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolding IF · 1-2 (L)
FC Fredericia
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Esbjerg · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hobro · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hillerød · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vejle · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Kolding IF · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · AB Copenhagen 1-1 FC Fredericia (1. Division)
- 2021-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · AB Copenhagen 0-2 FC Fredericia (DBU Pokalen)
- 2017-04-02T11:45:00.000Z · AB Copenhagen 3-1 FC Fredericia (1. Division)
- 2016-11-20T12:45:00.000Z · AB Copenhagen 2-3 FC Fredericia (1. Division)
- 2016-08-07T11:45:00.000Z · AB Copenhagen 1-2 FC Fredericia (1. Division)
- 2015-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · AB Copenhagen 0-1 FC Fredericia (1. Division)
- 2014-11-16T14:00:00.000Z · AB Copenhagen 1-0 FC Fredericia (1. Division)
- 2014-08-10T13:00:00.000Z · AB Copenhagen 2-0 FC Fredericia (1. Division)
- 2014-05-04T13:00:00.000Z · AB Copenhagen 0-1 FC Fredericia (1. Division)
- 2014-04-06T13:00:00.000Z · AB Copenhagen 1-0 FC Fredericia (1. Division)
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hvidovre | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 28 |
| 2 | Vejle | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | FC Fredericia | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 20 |
| 4 | AB Copenhagen | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Aarhus Fremad | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 6 | Hobro | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 15 |
| 7 | Aalborg | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 | Kolding IF | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Hillerød | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | HB Koge | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 11 | Vendsyssel FF | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 12 | Esbjerg | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.