Academico Viseu vs GIL Vicente Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Academico Viseu and 1.13 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Academico Viseu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Academico Viseu home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
GIL Vicente away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Academico Viseu to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 29% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Academico Viseu and 1.13 for GIL Vicente, a combined 2.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Academico Viseu win36%

Draw29%

GIL Vicente win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–113.3%
1–011.8%
0–111.6%
0–010.3%
2–17.6%

Recent form

Academico Viseu

2026-10-25T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fátima · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Estoril · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitória SC · 2-1 (W)

GIL Vicente

2026-10-24T19:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-19T19:15:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs União Santarém · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-09T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Moreirense · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Maritimo · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primeira Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	9	9	0	0	17	27
2	Benfica	8	6	1	1	17	19
3	Sporting CP	9	5	3	1	10	18
4	Santa Clara	8	5	3	0	8	18
5	Arouca	9	5	2	2	5	17
6	Academico Viseu	9	5	2	2	2	17
7	GIL Vicente	9	4	2	3	1	14
8	Alverca	9	3	2	4	0	11
9	SC Braga	9	3	2	4	-2	11
10	Moreirense	9	3	2	4	-5	11
11	Famalicao	9	2	4	3	3	10
12	Estrela	9	2	4	3	-3	10
13	Vitória SC	9	2	2	5	0	8
14	Maritimo	9	2	2	5	-10	8
15	Nacional	9	2	1	6	-8	7
16	Casa Pia	9	2	1	6	-12	7
17	Rio Ave	9	2	1	6	-13	7
18	Estoril	9	0	2	7	-10	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.