· Analysis updated 23:29 UTC
Academico Viseu vs Sporting CP Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Academico Viseu and 1.90 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Sporting CP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sporting CP win
59.0% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Academico Viseu home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting CP away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sporting CP to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 19% / 22% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.97 goals for Academico Viseu and 1.90 for Sporting CP, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–110.7%
- 1–110.5%
- 0–210.2%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–36.4%
Recent form
Academico Viseu
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fátima · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Estoril · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitória SC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:30:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 1-0 (W)
Sporting CP
- 2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lask Linz · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-13T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T19:15:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Arouca · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting CP win, at 59.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.