Urheilupuiston Ylakentta · Analysis updated 11:34 UTC
ÅIFK vs Ilves II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for ÅIFK and 2.15 for Ilves II, a combined total of 4.38. That distribution gives ÅIFK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.2% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ilves II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ÅIFK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 20% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for ÅIFK and 2.15 for Ilves II, a combined 4.38 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 81% and both teams to score at 79%, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.2%
- 2–16.7%
- 1–26.5%
- 1–16.0%
- 3–25.3%
Recent form
ÅIFK
Ilves II
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs NJS · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs HJS Akatemia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Musa · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-07-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs P-Iirot · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Honka · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Kakkonen - Lohko B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.