Al-Gharafa vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Al-Gharafa and 1.75 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Al-Qadisiyah FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Al-Qadisiyah FC win

55.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 1.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Al-Gharafa home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Qadisiyah FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 22% / 24% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Al-Gharafa and 1.75 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Al-Gharafa win22%

Draw24%

Al-Qadisiyah FC win55%

Double chance 1X

45%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

79%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

0–111.2%
1–111.2%
0–29.8%
1–29.8%
0–06.4%

Recent form

Al-Gharafa

2026-10-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Wakrah · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Mesaimeer · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-15T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lusail City · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Sadd · 1-4 (L)

Al-Qadisiyah FC

2026-10-16T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Abha · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-12T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Pakhtakor · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-09T13:50:00.000Z · A vs Al Kholood · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-14T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Wasl FC · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-11T15:25:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ettifaq · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

AFC Champions League Elite table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al Ain	2	2	0	0	7	6
2	Esteghlal FC	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	2	2	0	0	3	6
4	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	2	2	0	0	2	6
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	2	1	1	0	2	4
6	Al-Qadisiyah FC	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	Neftchi	2	1	0	1	-1	3
8	Al-Nassr	2	1	0	1	-2	3
9	Pakhtakor	2	0	2	0	0	2
10	Al Shamal	2	0	2	0	0	2
11	Al-Ittihad FC	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Tractor Sazi	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Al-Gharafa	2	0	0	2	-2	0
14	Al-Wasl FC	2	0	0	2	-3	0
15	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	0	0	2	-4	0
16	Al Sadd	2	0	0	2	-5	0
1	Kashima	2	2	0	0	7	6
2	Gamba Osaka	2	2	0	0	5	6
3	Vissel Kobe	2	2	0	0	3	6
4	Beijing Guoan	2	2	0	0	3	6
5	SHANGHAI SIPG	2	1	1	0	2	4
6	Johor Darul Takzim FC	2	1	1	0	2	4
7	Daejeon Citizen	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Kashiwa Reysol	2	1	0	1	3	3
9	Kyoto Sanga	2	1	0	1	0	3
10	Jeonbuk Motors	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Buriram United	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Ratchaburi	2	0	0	2	-3	0
13	Công An Nhân Dân	2	0	0	2	-4	0
14	Pohang Steelers	2	0	0	2	-4	0
15	Port FC	2	0	0	2	-5	0
16	Newcastle Jets	2	0	0	2	-8	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Al-Qadisiyah FC win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.