Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium · Analysis updated 15:50 UTC
Al Sadd vs Al Shamal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.57 expected goals for Al Sadd and 1.85 for Al Shamal, a combined total of 5.42. That distribution gives Al Sadd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 90% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Al Sadd win
69.6% probability
Expected goals
3.57 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Sadd home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Al Shamal away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Sadd to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 14% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.57 goals for Al Sadd and 1.85 for Al Shamal, a combined 5.42 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–16.2%
- 3–25.7%
- 4–15.5%
- 2–15.2%
- 4–25.1%
Recent form
Al Sadd
- 2026-09-14T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Esteghlal FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-10T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Sailiya · 6-3 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Gharafa · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Gharafa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Qatar SC · 6-2 (W)
Al Shamal
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tractor Sazi · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-08T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Al-Duhail SC · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-01T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Muaither SC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Bidda SC · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ittihad FC · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Rayyan SC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Al Sadd | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 |
| 3 | Al-Duhail SC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 4 | Al-Arabi SC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Al Shamal | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | Al Ahli Doha | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Al Shahaniya | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Lusail City | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 9 | Al Wakrah | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | Al-Gharafa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 11 | Qatar SC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 2 |
| 12 | Al-Sailiya | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Sadd win, at 69.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 90%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.