FC Alverca Sports Complex · Referee Jose Bessa, Portugal · Analysis updated 13:36 UTC
Alverca vs Estrela Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Alverca and 1.08 for Estrela, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Alverca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.5% probability
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alverca home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Estrela away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alverca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 27% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.37 goals for Alverca and 1.08 for Estrela, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.5%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.25 | 75.5% | 76.8% | 1.30 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Away | 3.30 | 28.4% | 29.6% | 3.38 | +1.2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.85 | 49.7% | 50.7% | 1.97 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.20 | 42.7% | 43.5% | 2.30 | +0.8 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.70 | 55.3% | 55.7% | 1.80 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.33 | 70.3% | 70.5% | 1.42 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.28 | 73.0% | 73.1% | 1.37 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.65 | 56.7% | 56.6% | 1.77 | -0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.10 | 44.7% | 44.3% | 2.26 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.83 | 50.3% | 49.3% | 2.03 | -1.0 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.85 | 24.5% | 23.2% | 4.31 | -1.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.25 | 28.9% | 27.0% | 3.70 | -1.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Alverca
- 2026-10-12T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Ave · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nacional · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Santa Clara · 1-1 (D)
Estrela
- 2026-10-11T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Arouca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Rio Ave · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-10T19:15:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T14:30:00.000Z · Alverca 2-2 Estrela (Primeira Liga)
- 2026-01-31T20:30:00.000Z · Alverca 1-1 Estrela (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-08-25T19:15:00.000Z · Alverca 2-2 Estrela (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.