Lotto Park · Referee B. Put · Analysis updated 16:15 UTC
Anderlecht vs Kortrijk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Anderlecht and 0.83 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Anderlecht the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Anderlecht win
68.3% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Anderlecht home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kortrijk away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Anderlecht to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 19% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Anderlecht and 0.83 for Kortrijk, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.8%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.9%
- 3–08.5%
Recent form
Anderlecht
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cercle Brugge · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Reims · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Zulte Waregem · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyon · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs KV Mechelen · 1-0 (W)
Kortrijk
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Heist · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · H vs SK Beveren · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:15:00.000Z · A vs RAAL La Louvière · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zulte Waregem · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Anderlecht · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gent | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Club Brugge KV | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Charleroi | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 20 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | KVC Westerlo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Genk | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 8 | Zulte Waregem | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Standard Liege | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Lommel United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | SK Beveren | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | St. Truiden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Antwerp | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | KV Mechelen | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 15 | OH Leuven | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
| 16 | RAAL La Louvière | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Kortrijk | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
| 18 | Cercle Brugge | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Anderlecht win, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.