Stade Raymond Kopa · Referee Azzedine Souifi, France · Analysis updated 14:21 UTC
Angers vs Estac Troyes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for Angers and 0.99 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Angers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.9% probability
Expected goals
1.26 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Angers home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Estac Troyes away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.3%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–010.5%
- 0–110.4%
- 2–08.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 55.0% vs market 46.1%, edge +8.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 46.1% | 55.0% | 1.82 | +8.9 |
| Match result | Away | 3.20 | 28.8% | 29.1% | 3.44 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 71.3% | 71.6% | 1.40 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.25 | 28.4% | 28.4% | 3.52 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.65 | 57.5% | 57.5% | 1.74 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.15 | 42.9% | 42.5% | 2.35 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.33 | 71.3% | 70.9% | 1.41 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 53.9% | 45.0% | 2.22 | -8.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Angers
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Estac Troyes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Havre · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Auxerre · 3-1 (W)
Estac Troyes
- 2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Marseille · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dijon · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Angers · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 2-6 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2024-04-20T17:00:00.000Z · Angers 2-1 Estac Troyes (Ligue 2)
- 2023-12-16T18:00:00.000Z · Angers 4-1 Estac Troyes (Ligue 2)
- 2023-05-27T19:00:00.000Z · Angers 2-1 Estac Troyes (Ligue 1)
- 2022-08-28T13:00:00.000Z · Angers 1-3 Estac Troyes (Ligue 1)
- 2022-01-23T14:00:00.000Z · Angers 2-1 Estac Troyes (Ligue 1)
- 2021-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · Angers 1-1 Estac Troyes (Ligue 1)
- 2021-07-24T15:00:00.000Z · Angers 3-0 Estac Troyes (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2018-01-17T18:00:00.000Z · Angers 3-1 Estac Troyes (Ligue 1)
- 2017-11-25T19:00:00.000Z · Angers 0-3 Estac Troyes (Ligue 1)
- 2016-04-02T18:00:00.000Z · Angers 1-0 Estac Troyes (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.