· Analysis updated 06:29 UTC
Arouca vs Benfica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Arouca and 2.20 for Benfica, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives Benfica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Benfica win
58.4% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 2.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Arouca home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Benfica away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Benfica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 22% / 20% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Arouca and 2.20 for Benfica, a combined 3.48 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.6%
- 1–18.7%
- 0–27.5%
- 1–37.0%
- 0–16.8%
Recent form
Arouca
- 2026-10-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Alverca · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs CF Os Belenenses · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-11T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Estrela · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Clara · 1-2 (L)
Benfica
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Nicosia · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtic · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Porto · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Milan · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Benfica win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.