· Analysis updated 05:14 UTC
Arouca vs Casa Pia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Arouca and 0.86 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.24. That distribution gives Arouca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.
Model pick
Arouca to Win
49.1% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.7%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–010.6%
- 2–010.1%
- 0–19.1%
Why the model likes this
Casa Pia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arouca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 28% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Arouca and 0.86 for Casa Pia, a combined 2.24 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% and both teams to score at 43%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Recent form
Arouca
- 2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória SC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Lusitânia Lourosa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Feirense · 0-0 (D)
Casa Pia
- 2026-08-08T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Maritimo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Leixoes · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-07-25T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Benfica B · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-28T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Academico Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.