Estádio Municipal de Arouca · Referee Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe · Analysis updated 20:38 UTC
Arouca vs Estrela Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for Arouca and 1.01 for Estrela, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Arouca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.9% probability
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Arouca home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Estrela away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 1–012.9%
- 0–110.1%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–18.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 53.9% vs market 46.7%, edge +7.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 46.7% | 53.9% | 1.86 | +7.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.35 | 69.6% | 70.9% | 1.41 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Home | 2.15 | 42.6% | 42.9% | 2.33 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.8% | 28.0% | 3.57 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.3% | 72.0% | 1.39 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 3.10 | 29.6% | 29.1% | 3.44 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.62 | 58.0% | 57.1% | 1.75 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 53.3% | 46.1% | 2.17 | -7.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Arouca
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Clara · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Estoril · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Maritimo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T19:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Porto · 0-2 (L)
Estrela
- 2026-10-11T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Arouca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Rio Ave · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-10T19:15:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-19T14:30:00.000Z · Arouca 1-0 Estrela (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-12-07T18:00:00.000Z · Arouca 1-3 Estrela (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-04-19T17:00:00.000Z · Arouca 1-0 Estrela (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-12-09T20:15:00.000Z · Arouca 1-2 Estrela (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-05-05T17:00:00.000Z · Arouca 0-0 Estrela (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-12-28T20:15:00.000Z · Arouca 4-1 Estrela (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.