Estádio Municipal de Arouca · Referee Gustavo Correia, Portugal · Analysis updated 14:03 UTC
Arouca vs Maritimo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Arouca and 1.28 for Maritimo, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Arouca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Arouca win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Arouca home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Maritimo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–07.8%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–26.4%
Recent form
Arouca
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Clara · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Estoril · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Maritimo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T19:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Porto · 0-2 (L)
Maritimo
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Moreirense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Benfica · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Arouca · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · Arouca 2-1 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-04-08T14:30:00.000Z · Arouca 1-0 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-10-23T14:30:00.000Z · Arouca 1-1 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-02-14T20:15:00.000Z · Arouca 0-3 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · Arouca 2-2 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2017-03-19T16:00:00.000Z · Arouca 1-3 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2016-10-30T16:00:00.000Z · Arouca 1-0 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2016-04-24T15:00:00.000Z · Arouca 2-1 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2015-12-19T18:30:00.000Z · Arouca 4-1 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2015-05-03T15:00:00.000Z · Arouca 1-1 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Arouca win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.