· Analysis updated 15:01 UTC
Arouca vs Nacional Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Arouca and 0.92 for Nacional, a combined total of 2.82. That distribution gives Arouca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Arouca win
60.2% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Arouca home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nacional away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arouca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 22% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Arouca and 0.92 for Nacional, a combined 2.82 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.3%
- 2–010.7%
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.8%
Recent form
Arouca
- 2026-10-11T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Estrela · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Clara · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Estoril · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Maritimo · 2-1 (W)
Nacional
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Rio Ave · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Alverca · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Estrela · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Arouca win, at 60.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.