Emirates Stadium · Referee Felix Zwayer · Analysis updated 15:33 UTC
Arsenal vs Lille Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.31 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.54 for Lille, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Arsenal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Arsenal win
77.4% probability
Expected goals
2.31 – 0.54
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Arsenal home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lille away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arsenal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 16% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.31 goals for Arsenal and 0.54 for Lille, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–015.4%
- 1–013.4%
- 3–011.9%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–17.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.75 (model 62.4% vs market 53.9%, edge +8.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.75 | 53.9% | 62.4% | 1.60 | +8.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.04 | 92.0% | 93.0% | 1.08 | +1.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 4.40 | 21.8% | 22.6% | 4.42 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 6.00 | 15.5% | 15.6% | 6.41 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.20 | 77.4% | 77.4% | 1.29 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 13.00 | 7.1% | 7.0% | 14.29 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.11 | 86.2% | 84.4% | 1.18 | -1.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.05 | 46.1% | 37.6% | 2.66 | -8.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Arsenal
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lille · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 2-0 (W)
Lille
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Le Havre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Zulte Waregem · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Nice · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Estac Troyes · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Barcelona | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 3 | Aston Villa | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 4 | VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Sporting CP | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Arsenal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Real Madrid | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Real Betis | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Bayern München | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 11 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Como | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Villarreal | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Atletico Madrid | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Club Brugge KV | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | Manchester City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 19 | Lens | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 | AEK Athens FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 21 | RB Leipzig | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 22 | Sabah FA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 23 | Feyenoord | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 24 | Bodo/Glimt | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 3 |
| 25 | AS Roma | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 26 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 27 | Viking | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 28 | Fenerbahçe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -6 | 1 |
| 29 | Inter | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | FC Porto | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 31 | Slavia Praha | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 32 | Napoli | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | Lask Linz | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 | Lille | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Galatasaray | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Arsenal win, at 77.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.