· Referee M. Ocenas · Analysis updated 06:11 UTC
AS Trencin vs Spartak Trnava Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.07 expected goals for AS Trencin and 1.68 for Spartak Trnava, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Spartak Trnava the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Spartak Trnava win
51.6% probability
Expected goals
1.07 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AS Trencin home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Spartak Trnava away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–06.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 46.5% vs market 43.0%, edge +3.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 43.0% | 46.5% | 2.15 | +3.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.25 | 75.0% | 75.8% | 1.32 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.95 | 48.1% | 48.4% | 2.07 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 1.75 | 51.4% | 51.6% | 1.94 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 3.70 | 24.3% | 24.2% | 4.13 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.70 | 24.3% | 24.2% | 4.13 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.9% | 75.8% | 1.32 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.0% | 53.5% | 1.87 | -3.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
AS Trencin
- 2026-10-14T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotíva Košice · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Dukla Banská Bystrica · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Artis · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Žilina · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunajska Streda · 1-4 (L)
Spartak Trnava
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunajska Streda · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Košice · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ružomberok · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Púchov · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Žilina · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T15:00:00.000Z · AS Trencin 0-4 Spartak Trnava (Super Liga)
- 2025-11-02T17:00:00.000Z · AS Trencin 0-4 Spartak Trnava (Super Liga)
- 2025-08-03T15:00:00.000Z · AS Trencin 0-1 Spartak Trnava (Super Liga)
- 2024-10-27T13:30:00.000Z · AS Trencin 2-3 Spartak Trnava (Super Liga)
- 2024-07-28T16:00:00.000Z · AS Trencin 0-0 Spartak Trnava (Super Liga)
- 2023-10-29T16:30:00.000Z · AS Trencin 2-3 Spartak Trnava (Super Liga)
- 2023-07-30T16:00:00.000Z · AS Trencin 2-1 Spartak Trnava (Super Liga)
- 2023-04-05T16:00:00.000Z · AS Trencin 0-3 Spartak Trnava (Cup)
- 2023-03-15T17:00:00.000Z · AS Trencin 1-2 Spartak Trnava (Cup)
- 2023-02-25T14:00:00.000Z · AS Trencin 2-3 Spartak Trnava (Super Liga)
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunajska Streda | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 29 |
| 2 | Spartak Trnava | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Slovan Bratislava | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 4 | Žilina | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 21 |
| 5 | Podbrezová | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 6 | FK Košice | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Zemplín Michalovce | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 14 |
| 8 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 9 | Skalica | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 10 | AS Trencin | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 9 |
| 11 | Ružomberok | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
| 12 | Komárno | 12 | 0 | 7 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spartak Trnava win, at 51.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.