Estadio Miguel Grau · Referee Rudy Mendez, Peru · Analysis updated 14:05 UTC
Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Atletico Grau and 1.15 for FBC Melgar, a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives FBC Melgar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.3% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atletico Grau home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FBC Melgar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 0–112.4%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–010.8%
- 1–27.7%
Recent form
Atletico Grau
- 2026-09-19T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Cristal · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Atletico · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-01T20:00:00.000Z · H vs FBC Melgar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 2-2 (D)
FBC Melgar
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cusco · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T23:30:00.000Z · H vs ADT · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Grau · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-01T20:00:00.000Z · Atletico Grau 1-0 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
- 2026-03-15T18:15:00.000Z · Atletico Grau 0-0 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
- 2025-10-05T20:00:00.000Z · Atletico Grau 0-0 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
- 2025-05-18T23:00:00.000Z · Atletico Grau 1-1 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
- 2024-09-24T01:00:00.000Z · Atletico Grau 0-0 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
- 2024-04-21T19:30:00.000Z · Atletico Grau 1-2 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
- 2023-07-07T20:00:00.000Z · Atletico Grau 0-3 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
- 2023-02-04T18:00:00.000Z · Atletico Grau 3-0 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
- 2022-10-24T20:00:00.000Z · Atletico Grau 2-1 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
- 2022-06-25T00:00:00.000Z · Atletico Grau 0-1 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.