Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Atletico Grau and 1.15 for FBC Melgar, a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives FBC Melgar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

66.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.08 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Atletico Grau home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FBC Melgar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Atletico Grau win34%

Draw29%

FBC Melgar win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–113.4%
0–112.4%
1–011.6%
0–010.8%
1–27.7%

Recent form

Atletico Grau

2026-10-23T20:15:00.000Z · H vs ADT · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-18T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Lima · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-08T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Cristal · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Atletico · 3-1 (W)

FBC Melgar

2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cusco · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T23:30:00.000Z · H vs ADT · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-01T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Grau · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-01T20:00:00.000Z · Atletico Grau 1-0 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
2026-03-15T18:15:00.000Z · Atletico Grau 0-0 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
2025-10-05T20:00:00.000Z · Atletico Grau 0-0 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
2025-05-18T23:00:00.000Z · Atletico Grau 1-1 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
2024-09-24T01:00:00.000Z · Atletico Grau 0-0 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
2024-04-21T19:30:00.000Z · Atletico Grau 1-2 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
2023-07-07T20:00:00.000Z · Atletico Grau 0-3 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
2023-02-04T18:00:00.000Z · Atletico Grau 3-0 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
2022-10-24T20:00:00.000Z · Atletico Grau 2-1 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
2022-06-25T00:00:00.000Z · Atletico Grau 0-1 FBC Melgar (Primera División)

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	29	18	8	3	29	62
2	Universitario	30	16	8	6	18	56
3	FBC Melgar	30	15	8	7	19	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	14	6	9	12	48
5	Cusco	30	15	3	12	2	48
6	Cienciano	29	14	5	10	9	47
7	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	13	7	9	-8	46
8	Sporting Cristal	30	13	5	12	9	44
9	Sport Huancayo	30	13	5	12	-2	44
10	Alianza Atletico	30	12	7	11	1	43
11	Sport Boys	29	10	8	11	-1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	30	10	8	12	-11	38
13	Atletico Grau	30	9	7	14	-7	34
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	7	10	12	-5	31
15	FC Cajamarca	29	7	7	15	-12	28
16	UCV Moquegua	29	7	7	15	-18	28
17	ADT	30	6	9	15	-14	27
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	4	8	18	-21	15
1	Alianza Lima	17	12	4	1	22	40
2	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	17	10	4	3	4	34
3	Cienciano	17	10	3	4	12	33
4	Universitario	17	8	5	4	9	29
5	FBC Melgar	17	8	4	5	9	28
6	Cusco	17	8	3	6	-3	27
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	17	7	5	5	3	26
8	Alianza Atletico	17	5	6	6	2	21
9	Comerciantes Unidos	17	5	6	6	-2	21
10	ADT	17	5	5	7	1	20
11	Sport Boys	17	5	5	7	-4	20
12	Sporting Cristal	17	5	4	8	-2	19
13	UTC Cajamarca	17	4	6	7	-5	18
14	UCV Moquegua	17	5	3	9	-7	18
15	FC Cajamarca	17	4	5	8	-5	17
16	Atletico Grau	17	4	4	9	-6	16
17	Sport Huancayo	17	4	4	9	-10	16
18	Juan Pablo II College	17	4	4	9	-18	16
1	Sport Huancayo	13	9	1	3	8	28
2	Universitario	13	8	3	2	9	27
3	Sporting Cristal	13	8	1	4	11	25
4	FBC Melgar	13	7	4	2	10	25
5	Deportivo Garcilaso	12	7	1	4	9	22
6	Juan Pablo II College	13	6	4	3	7	22
7	Alianza Lima	12	6	4	2	7	22
8	Alianza Atletico	13	7	1	5	-1	22
9	Cusco	13	7	0	6	5	21
10	Sport Boys	12	5	3	4	3	18
11	Atletico Grau	13	5	3	5	-1	18
12	Cienciano	12	4	2	6	-3	14
13	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	12	3	3	6	-12	12
14	FC Cajamarca	12	3	2	7	-7	11
15	Comerciantes Unidos	12	2	4	6	-3	10
16	UCV Moquegua	12	2	4	6	-11	10
17	ADT	13	1	4	8	-15	7
18	UTC Cajamarca	13	0	2	11	-16	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.