Atletico-MG vs Corinthians Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Atletico-MG and 0.86 for Corinthians, a combined total of 2.31. That distribution gives Atletico-MG the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Atletico-MG win

50.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.45 – 0.86

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Atletico-MG home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Corinthians away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico-MG to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 27% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Atletico-MG and 0.86 for Corinthians, a combined 2.31 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Atletico-MG win51%

Draw27%

Corinthians win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals41%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–014.4%
1–112.4%
2–010.4%
0–09.9%
2–19.0%

Recent form

Atletico-MG

2026-10-14T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Torque · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-08T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Paranaense · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T21:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Chapecoense-sc · 1-1 (D)

Corinthians

2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Internacional · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-17T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes L.P. · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	31	20	7	4	36	67
2	Palmeiras	31	19	9	3	32	66
3	Atletico Paranaense	31	15	8	8	12	53
4	Cruzeiro	31	15	6	10	4	51
5	Fluminense	31	14	9	8	10	51
6	Atletico-MG	31	14	8	9	7	50
7	Bahia	31	13	10	8	5	49
8	Santos	31	12	9	10	2	45
9	Sao Paulo	31	12	6	13	1	42
10	RB Bragantino	31	11	8	12	3	41
11	Botafogo	31	10	9	12	-4	39
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	-11	39
13	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	-11	36
14	Mirassol	31	9	9	13	-8	36
15	Vasco DA Gama	30	9	8	13	-7	35
16	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	-7	32
17	Internacional	31	7	11	13	-7	32
18	Gremio	31	7	10	14	-10	31
19	Remo	31	5	11	15	-15	26
20	Chapecoense-sc	30	3	9	18	-32	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Atletico-MG win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.