Arena MRV · Referee Bruno Arleu de Araujo, Brazil · Analysis updated 13:20 UTC
Atletico-MG vs Gremio Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Atletico-MG and 0.92 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Atletico-MG the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atletico-MG win
54.1% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atletico-MG home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gremio away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico-MG to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 25% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Atletico-MG and 0.92 for Gremio, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.7%
- 1–111.7%
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.30 | 72.6% | 74.7% | 1.34 | +2.1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.85 | 50.0% | 51.6% | 1.94 | +1.6 |
| Match result | Home | 1.76 | 53.1% | 54.1% | 1.85 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Away | 4.55 | 20.5% | 21.2% | 4.72 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 78.2% | 78.8% | 1.27 | +0.6 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.80 | 52.6% | 53.1% | 1.88 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.00 | 46.1% | 45.9% | 2.18 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 75.6% | 75.3% | 1.33 | -0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.00 | 47.4% | 46.9% | 2.13 | -0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.55 | 26.3% | 24.7% | 4.05 | -1.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 50.0% | 48.4% | 2.07 | -1.6 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.45 | 27.4% | 25.3% | 3.95 | -2.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Atletico-MG
- 2026-10-21T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Torque · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Coritiba · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Torque · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Paranaense · 2-2 (D)
Gremio
- 2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruzeiro · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Internacional · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 34 | 69 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 36 | 67 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 54 |
| 4 | Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 54 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 51 |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 50 |
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 50 |
| 8 | Santos | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 46 |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 43 |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 41 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | -4 | 35 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 | Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 31 | 4 | 9 | 18 | -31 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atletico-MG win, at 54.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.