Atletico-MG vs Mirassol Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Atletico-MG and 1.40 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Mirassol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.23 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Atletico-MG home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mirassol away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mirassol to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 33% / 26% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Atletico-MG and 1.40 for Mirassol, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Atletico-MG win33%

Draw26%

Mirassol win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.4%
0–110.1%
1–08.9%
1–28.7%
2–17.6%

Recent form

Atletico-MG

2026-10-14T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Torque · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-08T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Paranaense · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T21:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Chapecoense-sc · 1-1 (D)

Mirassol

2026-10-11T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Bahia · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Uberlandia · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	30	19	7	4	33	64
2	Palmeiras	30	18	9	3	30	63
3	Atletico Paranaense	30	15	8	7	14	53
4	Fluminense	30	14	9	7	11	51
5	Bahia	30	13	10	7	8	49
6	Cruzeiro	30	14	6	10	2	48
7	Atletico-MG	30	13	8	9	6	47
8	Santos	30	11	9	10	1	42
9	RB Bragantino	30	11	7	12	3	40
10	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	0	39
11	Coritiba	30	10	9	11	-10	39
12	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	-11	36
13	Botafogo	30	9	9	12	-5	36
14	Mirassol	31	9	9	13	-8	36
15	Vasco DA Gama	29	9	8	12	-6	35
16	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	-7	32
17	Internacional	31	7	11	13	-7	32
18	Gremio	30	7	10	13	-8	31
19	Remo	30	5	10	15	-15	25
20	Chapecoense-sc	29	3	9	17	-31	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.