Atletico-MG vs Palmeiras Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.02 expected goals for Atletico-MG and 1.52 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Palmeiras the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.

Model pick

Palmeiras to Win

49.0% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.02 – 1.52

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Atletico-MG win25%

Draw26%

Palmeiras win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.2%
0–112.0%
1–29.3%
0–29.2%
1–08.0%

Why the model likes this

Atletico-MG home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Palmeiras away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Recent form

Atletico-MG

2026-08-12T22:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-04T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Juventude · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-01T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventude · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-26T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras · 2-1 (W)

Palmeiras

2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-12T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerro Porteno · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-06T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Fortaleza EC · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortaleza EC · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-26T22:30:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 2-1 Palmeiras (Serie A)
2026-01-28T22:00:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 2-2 Palmeiras (Serie A)
2025-12-04T00:30:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 0-3 Palmeiras (Serie A)
2025-07-20T20:30:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 2-3 Palmeiras (Serie A)
2024-09-28T21:30:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 1-2 Palmeiras (Serie A)
2024-06-17T23:30:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 0-4 Palmeiras (Serie A)
2023-10-19T22:00:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 2-0 Palmeiras (Serie A)
2023-08-10T00:30:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 0-0 Palmeiras (CONMEBOL Libertadores)
2023-08-03T00:30:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 0-1 Palmeiras (CONMEBOL Libertadores)
2023-05-28T21:30:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 1-1 Palmeiras (Serie A)

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	21	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	11	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	6	38
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	RB Bragantino	22	9	5	8	4	32
8	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
9	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
10	Coritiba	22	8	6	8	-2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	21	7	5	9	1	26
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.