Atletico-MG vs Vitoria Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Atletico-MG and 0.73 for Vitoria, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Atletico-MG the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Atletico-MG win

64.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.88 – 0.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Atletico-MG home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vitoria away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Atletico-MG win65%

Draw22%

Vitoria win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

35%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–013.9%
2–013.1%
1–110.1%
2–19.5%
3–08.2%

Recent form

Atletico-MG

2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-08T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Paranaense · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T21:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Chapecoense-sc · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 4-2 (W)

Vitoria

2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-07T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Chapecoense-sc · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruzeiro · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirassol · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-07T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Gremio · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-29T21:30:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 2-1 Vitoria (Serie A)
2026-03-14T21:30:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 0-2 Vitoria (Serie A)
2025-08-31T21:30:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 0-1 Vitoria (Serie A)
2025-04-13T23:30:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 2-2 Vitoria (Serie A)
2024-10-05T19:30:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 2-2 Vitoria (Serie A)
2024-06-20T21:30:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 2-4 Vitoria (Serie A)
2018-08-26T19:00:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 0-1 Vitoria (Serie A)
2018-04-22T19:00:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 2-1 Vitoria (Serie A)
2017-09-24T22:00:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 1-3 Vitoria (Serie A)
2017-06-11T19:00:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 0-2 Vitoria (Serie A)

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	30	19	7	4	33	64
2	Palmeiras	30	18	9	3	30	63
3	Atletico Paranaense	30	15	8	7	14	53
4	Fluminense	30	14	9	7	11	51
5	Bahia	30	13	10	7	8	49
6	Cruzeiro	30	14	6	10	2	48
7	Atletico-MG	30	13	8	9	6	47
8	Santos	30	11	9	10	1	42
9	RB Bragantino	30	11	7	12	3	40
10	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	0	39
11	Coritiba	30	10	9	11	-10	39
12	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	-11	36
13	Botafogo	30	9	9	12	-5	36
14	Vasco DA Gama	29	9	8	12	-6	35
15	Mirassol	30	8	9	13	-10	33
16	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	-7	32
17	Internacional	30	7	11	12	-5	32
18	Gremio	30	7	10	13	-8	31
19	Remo	30	5	10	15	-15	25
20	Chapecoense-sc	29	3	9	17	-31	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Atletico-MG win, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.