Arena da Baixada · Referee Ramon Abatti Abel, Brazil · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.84 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Atletico Paranaense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.5% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atletico Paranaense home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico Paranaense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 30% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.84 for Atletico-MG, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.7%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–111.4%
- 2–09.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 61.0% vs market 48.0%, edge +13.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 48.0% | 61.0% | 1.64 | +13.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.70 | 55.3% | 56.8% | 1.76 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Away | 3.50 | 26.1% | 26.5% | 3.77 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.35 | 69.6% | 69.7% | 1.43 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 30.4% | 30.3% | 3.30 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.10 | 43.5% | 43.2% | 2.31 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 75.2% | 73.5% | 1.36 | -1.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 52.0% | 39.0% | 2.56 | -13.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Atletico Paranaense
- 2026-10-08T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico-MG · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Bahia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Coritiba · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense · 3-3 (D)
Atletico-MG
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Paranaense · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T21:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Chapecoense-sc · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-05T20:30:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 1-2 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
- 2024-12-08T19:00:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 0-1 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
- 2024-11-16T21:30:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 1-0 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
- 2023-09-02T19:00:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
- 2023-05-23T22:00:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 1-2 Atletico-MG (CONMEBOL Libertadores)
- 2023-04-30T00:00:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 1-2 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
- 2023-04-19T00:00:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Atletico-MG (CONMEBOL Libertadores)
- 2022-08-07T22:00:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 3-2 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
- 2022-04-17T21:00:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 0-1 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
- 2021-12-16T00:30:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 1-2 Atletico-MG (Copa Do Brasil)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.