Arena da Baixada · Referee Anderson Daronco, Brazil · Analysis updated 13:54 UTC
Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.94 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Atletico Paranaense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.5% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 0.94
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atletico Paranaense home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bahia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.2%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.2%
- 0–111.5%
- 2–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 58.2% vs market 44.3%, edge +13.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 44.3% | 58.2% | 1.72 | +13.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.62 | 58.0% | 59.2% | 1.69 | +1.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.35 | 69.6% | 70.5% | 1.42 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.6% | 29.7% | 3.37 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.25 | 40.8% | 40.8% | 2.45 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.10 | 29.6% | 29.5% | 3.39 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.3% | 70.3% | 1.42 | -2.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.7% | 41.8% | 2.39 | -13.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Atletico Paranaense
- 2026-10-12T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Chapecoense-sc · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico-MG · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Bahia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Coritiba · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro · 1-3 (L)
Bahia
- 2026-10-18T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Paranaense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Remo · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T22:30:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2026-04-01T23:00:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 0-3 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2024-11-24T19:00:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2024-07-10T22:00:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 1-3 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2023-11-12T21:30:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2023-07-16T21:30:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 2-0 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2022-07-12T23:30:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Bahia (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2022-06-22T22:30:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Bahia (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2021-10-09T22:00:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 0-2 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2021-06-25T00:30:00.000Z · Atletico Paranaense 1-2 Bahia (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 36 | 67 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 32 | 66 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 53 |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 51 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 51 |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 50 |
| 7 | Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 49 |
| 8 | Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 45 |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 42 |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 41 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -4 | 39 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | -11 | 37 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | -8 | 36 |
| 15 | Vasco DA Gama | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | -7 | 35 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | -7 | 33 |
| 17 | Internacional | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | -7 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -15 | 26 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | -32 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.