Arena da Baixada · Referee Andre Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento, Brazil · Analysis updated 04:16 UTC
Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.21 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.69 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives Atletico Paranaense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws roughly 28% of the time.
Model pick
Atletico Paranaense to Win
72.2% probability
Expected goals
2.21 – 0.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.5%
- 1–012.2%
- 3–09.9%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.4%
Why the model likes this
Atletico Paranaense home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Chapecoense-sc away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico Paranaense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 18% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.21 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.69 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined 2.89 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Atletico Paranaense
- 2026-08-15T21:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-09T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Santos · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-06T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-30T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Corinthians · 0-0 (D)
Chapecoense-sc
- 2026-08-08T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Coritiba · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-02T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Cruzeiro · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-25T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Santos · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-23T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 48 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 42 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 41 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 38 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 33 |
| 6 | Bahia | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 33 |
| 7 | RB Bragantino | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 32 |
| 8 | Corinthians | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 32 |
| 9 | Botafogo | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 30 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 30 |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 29 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 26 |
| 14 | Gremio | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | -3 | 25 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 16 | Internacional | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 17 | Santos | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -6 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco DA Gama | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -8 | 22 |
| 19 | Remo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -10 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | -23 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.