Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.68 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Atletico Paranaense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Atletico Paranaense win

56.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.47 – 0.68

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Atletico Paranaense home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sao Paulo away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico Paranaense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 27% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.68 for Sao Paulo, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Atletico Paranaense win57%

Draw27%

Sao Paulo win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score38%

Correct score

1–017.2%
2–012.7%
0–011.6%
1–111.6%
2–18.6%

Recent form

Atletico Paranaense

2026-10-17T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-12T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Chapecoense-sc · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-08T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico-MG · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Bahia · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Coritiba · 3-3 (D)

Sao Paulo

2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-08T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-02T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	31	20	7	4	36	67
2	Palmeiras	31	19	9	3	32	66
3	Atletico Paranaense	31	15	8	8	12	53
4	Cruzeiro	31	15	6	10	4	51
5	Fluminense	31	14	9	8	10	51
6	Atletico-MG	31	14	8	9	7	50
7	Bahia	31	13	10	8	5	49
8	Santos	31	12	9	10	2	45
9	Sao Paulo	31	12	6	13	1	42
10	RB Bragantino	31	11	8	12	3	41
11	Botafogo	31	10	9	12	-4	39
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	-11	39
13	Vitoria	31	10	7	14	-11	37
14	Mirassol	31	9	9	13	-8	36
15	Vasco DA Gama	30	9	8	13	-7	35
16	Corinthians	31	8	9	14	-7	33
17	Internacional	31	7	11	13	-7	32
18	Gremio	31	7	10	14	-10	31
19	Remo	31	5	11	15	-15	26
20	Chapecoense-sc	30	3	9	18	-32	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Atletico Paranaense win, at 56.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.