Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.55 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Atletico Paranaense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws roughly 39% of the time.

Model pick

Atletico Paranaense to Win

60.6% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.50 – 0.55

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Atletico Paranaense win61%

Draw26%

Vasco DA Gama win14%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score33%

Correct score

1–019.3%
2–014.5%
0–012.9%
1–110.6%
2–18.0%

Why the model likes this

Atletico Paranaense home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Vasco DA Gama away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico Paranaense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 26% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.55 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Recent form

Atletico Paranaense

2026-08-15T21:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Santos · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-06T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-30T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Corinthians · 0-0 (D)

Vasco DA Gama

2026-08-13T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bahia · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-06T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-01T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-29T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Medellin · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	21	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	11	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	6	38
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	RB Bragantino	22	9	5	8	4	32
8	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
9	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
10	Coritiba	22	8	6	8	-2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	21	7	5	9	1	26
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.