Arena Fonte Nova · Referee Jonathan Benkenstein Pinheiro, Brazil · Analysis updated 21:42 UTC
Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Bahia and 1.30 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Atletico Paranaense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.5% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bahia home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico Paranaense away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico Paranaense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 36% / 27% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Bahia and 1.30 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–09.8%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
Bahia
- 2026-10-11T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Paranaense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Remo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 3-2 (W)
Atletico Paranaense
- 2026-10-08T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico-MG · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Bahia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Coritiba · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.