Bahia vs Coritiba Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Bahia and 1.08 for Coritiba, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Bahia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Bahia win

57.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.95 – 1.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bahia home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Coritiba away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bahia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 22% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Bahia and 1.08 for Coritiba, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Bahia win58%

Draw22%

Coritiba win21%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–110.2%
2–19.9%
1–09.5%
2–09.2%
3–16.5%

Recent form

Bahia

2026-10-11T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Paranaense · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-14T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Remo · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 3-2 (W)

Coritiba

2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Vasco DA Gama · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Paranaense · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	31	19	9	3	32	66
2	Flamengo	30	19	7	4	33	64
3	Atletico Paranaense	31	15	8	8	12	53
4	Fluminense	30	14	9	7	11	51
5	Atletico-MG	31	14	8	9	7	50
6	Bahia	30	13	10	7	8	49
7	Cruzeiro	30	14	6	10	2	48
8	Sao Paulo	31	12	6	13	1	42
9	Santos	30	11	9	10	1	42
10	RB Bragantino	30	11	7	12	3	40
11	Botafogo	31	10	9	12	-4	39
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	-11	39
13	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	-11	36
14	Mirassol	31	9	9	13	-8	36
15	Vasco DA Gama	30	9	8	13	-7	35
16	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	-7	32
17	Internacional	31	7	11	13	-7	32
18	Gremio	30	7	10	13	-8	31
19	Remo	30	5	10	15	-15	25
20	Chapecoense-sc	30	3	9	18	-32	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bahia win, at 57.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.