Brazil · Serie A · Matchweek 222:00

1 – 1

Thursday, 5 February 2026

Arena Fonte Nova · Referee Matheus Delgado Candançan, Brazil · Analysis updated 21:42 UTC

Bahia vs Fluminense Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Bahia and 1.50 for Fluminense, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Bahia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

62.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bahia home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Fluminense away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bahia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 24% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Bahia and 1.50 for Fluminense, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Bahia win38%

Draw24%

Fluminense win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–111.2%
1–28.4%
2–18.4%
0–17.5%
1–07.5%

Recent form

Bahia

2026-10-11T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Paranaense · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-14T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Remo · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 3-2 (W)

Fluminense

2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Coritiba · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Corinthians · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-15T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	30	19	7	4	33	64
2	Palmeiras	30	18	9	3	30	63
3	Atletico Paranaense	30	15	8	7	14	53
4	Fluminense	30	14	9	7	11	51
5	Bahia	30	13	10	7	8	49
6	Cruzeiro	30	14	6	10	2	48
7	Atletico-MG	30	13	8	9	6	47
8	Santos	30	11	9	10	1	42
9	RB Bragantino	30	11	7	12	3	40
10	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	0	39
11	Coritiba	30	10	9	11	-10	39
12	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	-11	36
13	Botafogo	30	9	9	12	-5	36
14	Vasco DA Gama	29	9	8	12	-6	35
15	Mirassol	30	8	9	13	-10	33
16	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	-7	32
17	Internacional	30	7	11	12	-5	32
18	Gremio	30	7	10	13	-8	31
19	Remo	30	5	10	15	-15	25
20	Chapecoense-sc	29	3	9	17	-31	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.