Arena Fonte Nova · Referee Paulo Cesar Zanovelli da Silva, Brazil · Analysis updated 20:42 UTC
Bahia vs Internacional Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Bahia and 1.08 for Internacional, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Bahia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bahia win
49.9% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bahia home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Internacional away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bahia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 25% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Bahia and 1.08 for Internacional, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.8%
- 0–17.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.8%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Away | 3.90 | 24.0% | 25.3% | 3.95 | +1.3 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.33 | 70.6% | 71.4% | 1.40 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 1.90 | 49.3% | 49.9% | 2.00 | +0.6 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.00 | 46.4% | 47.0% | 2.13 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.7% | 75.2% | 1.33 | +0.5 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.91 | 49.2% | 49.4% | 2.02 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 74.7% | 74.6% | 1.34 | -0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.85 | 50.8% | 50.6% | 1.98 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.85 | 50.5% | 50.0% | 2.00 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 53.6% | 53.0% | 1.89 | -0.6 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.20 | 29.4% | 28.6% | 3.50 | -0.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 26.7% | 24.7% | 4.05 | -2.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Bahia
- 2026-10-11T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Paranaense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Remo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 3-2 (W)
Internacional
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Chapecoense-sc · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bahia win, at 49.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.