Arena Fonte Nova · Referee Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima, Brazil · Analysis updated 20:40 UTC
Bahia vs Remo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.91 expected goals for Bahia and 0.74 for Remo, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Bahia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bahia win
65.1% probability
Expected goals
1.91 – 0.74
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bahia home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Remo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bahia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 21% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.91 goals for Bahia and 0.74 for Remo, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 2–012.9%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 55.5% vs market 46.7%, edge +8.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 46.7% | 55.5% | 1.80 | +8.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.11 | 85.6% | 86.3% | 1.16 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.33 | 21.0% | 21.2% | 4.72 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.40 | 65.0% | 65.1% | 1.54 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 6.50 | 14.0% | 13.7% | 7.30 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.70 | 35.2% | 34.9% | 2.87 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 79.2% | 78.8% | 1.27 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 53.3% | 44.5% | 2.25 | -8.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Bahia
- 2026-10-11T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Paranaense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Remo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 3-2 (W)
Remo
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Gremio · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Bahia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-31T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Coritiba · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-14T23:00:00.000Z · Bahia 2-1 Remo (Serie A)
- 2026-05-14T00:30:00.000Z · Bahia 1-2 Remo (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2026-04-22T22:00:00.000Z · Bahia 1-3 Remo (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2026-03-22T19:00:00.000Z · Bahia 1-4 Remo (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bahia win, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.