Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Bahia and 0.78 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.42. That distribution gives Bahia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws roughly 42% of the time.

Model pick

Bahia to Win

58.3% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.65 – 0.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Bahia win58%

Draw24%

Vasco DA Gama win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–014.6%
2–012.0%
1–111.3%
2–19.3%
0–08.8%

Why the model likes this

Vasco DA Gama away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bahia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 24% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Bahia and 0.78 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined 2.42 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 44%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.

Recent form

Bahia

Vasco DA Gama

2026-08-13T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bahia · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-06T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-01T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-29T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Medellin · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	22	14	6	2	22	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	22	12	4	6	11	40
4	Fluminense	22	9	8	5	5	35
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
8	RB Bragantino	21	9	4	8	4	31
9	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
10	Coritiba	22	8	6	8	-2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	21	7	5	9	1	26
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.