Brazil · Serie A · Matchweek 523:00

1 – 1

Wednesday, 11 March 2026

Arena Fonte Nova · Referee Rafael Rodrigo Klein, Brazil · Analysis updated 13:20 UTC

Bahia vs Vitoria Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for Bahia and 1.00 for Vitoria, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Bahia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Bahia win

68.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.40 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bahia home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vitoria away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bahia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 18% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for Bahia and 1.00 for Vitoria, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Bahia win68%

Draw18%

Vitoria win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

32%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

2–09.6%
2–19.6%
1–08.0%
1–18.0%
3–07.7%

Recent form

Bahia

2026-10-18T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-11T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Paranaense · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-14T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Remo · 2-1 (W)

Vitoria

2026-10-24T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Paranaense · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Corinthians · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-07T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Chapecoense-sc · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruzeiro · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	32	20	9	3	34	69
2	Flamengo	31	20	7	4	36	67
3	Cruzeiro	32	16	6	10	5	54
4	Atletico Paranaense	32	15	9	8	12	54
5	Fluminense	32	14	9	9	9	51
6	Atletico-MG	31	14	8	9	7	50
7	Bahia	32	13	11	8	5	50
8	Santos	32	12	10	10	2	46
9	Sao Paulo	32	12	7	13	1	43
10	RB Bragantino	32	11	8	13	1	41
11	Botafogo	32	10	9	13	-7	39
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	-11	39
13	Vasco DA Gama	31	10	8	13	-6	38
14	Vitoria	32	10	8	14	-11	38
15	Mirassol	32	9	10	13	-8	37
16	Internacional	32	8	11	13	-4	35
17	Corinthians	32	8	9	15	-8	33
18	Gremio	31	7	10	14	-10	31
19	Remo	32	5	11	16	-16	26
20	Chapecoense-sc	31	4	9	18	-31	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bahia win, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.