Estádio da Luz · Referee Helder Filipe Claudio Carvalho, Portugal · Analysis updated 14:07 UTC
Benfica vs Estoril Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.18 expected goals for Benfica and 0.65 for Estoril, a combined total of 3.82. That distribution gives Benfica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 86%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 86% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Benfica win
85.8% probability
Expected goals
3.18 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Benfica home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Estoril away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
96%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
14%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–011.6%
- 2–011.0%
- 4–09.2%
- 3–17.6%
- 2–17.1%
Recent form
Benfica
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Porto · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Milan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs GIL Vicente · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:45:00.000Z · A vs Moreirense · 4-0 (W)
Estoril
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Academico Viseu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Casa Pia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T19:45:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-07T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Arouca · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-31T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Benfica · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-31T19:15:00.000Z · Benfica 2-1 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
- 2026-05-16T19:30:00.000Z · Benfica 3-1 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
- 2026-01-03T18:00:00.000Z · Benfica 3-1 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-05-03T19:30:00.000Z · Benfica 2-1 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-12-23T18:45:00.000Z · Benfica 3-0 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-03-10T20:30:00.000Z · Benfica 3-1 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-01-24T19:45:00.000Z · Benfica 1-1 Estoril (Taça da Liga)
- 2023-10-07T19:30:00.000Z · Benfica 1-0 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-04-23T17:00:00.000Z · Benfica 1-0 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-11-09T20:45:00.000Z · Benfica 1-0 Estoril (Taça de Portugal)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Benfica win, at 85.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 86% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.