Estádio da Luz · Referee Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal · Analysis updated 14:49 UTC
Benfica vs GIL Vicente Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Benfica and 0.93 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Benfica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Benfica win
51.9% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Benfica home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Benfica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 26% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Benfica and 0.93 for GIL Vicente, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.0%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
Benfica
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Porto · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Milan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs GIL Vicente · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:45:00.000Z · A vs Moreirense · 4-0 (W)
GIL Vicente
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Maritimo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Benfica · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-24T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Casa Pia · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · Benfica 3-1 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2026-03-02T20:15:00.000Z · Benfica 2-1 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-09-26T19:15:00.000Z · Benfica 2-1 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-03-28T20:15:00.000Z · Benfica 3-0 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-09-28T19:30:00.000Z · Benfica 5-1 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-02-04T18:00:00.000Z · Benfica 3-0 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-08-26T19:30:00.000Z · Benfica 3-2 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-04-29T19:30:00.000Z · Benfica 2-0 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-11-13T18:00:00.000Z · Benfica 3-1 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-02-02T19:00:00.000Z · Benfica 1-2 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Benfica win, at 51.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.