· Analysis updated 17:49 UTC
Benfica vs Maritimo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Benfica and 1.15 for Maritimo, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Benfica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Benfica win
61.7% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Benfica home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Maritimo away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Benfica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 20% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Benfica and 1.15 for Maritimo, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.8%
- 2–08.5%
- 1–07.6%
- 3–17.2%
Recent form
Benfica
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Nicosia · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtic · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Porto · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Milan · 2-0 (W)
Maritimo
- 2026-10-23T19:45:00.000Z · A vs Vitória SC · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcochetense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Moreirense · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Benfica win, at 61.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.