· Analysis updated 15:11 UTC
Benfica vs Nacional Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Benfica and 0.90 for Nacional, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Benfica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Benfica win
68.8% probability
Expected goals
2.30 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Benfica home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nacional away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–18.4%
- 3–08.3%
Recent form
Benfica
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Porto · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Milan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs GIL Vicente · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:45:00.000Z · A vs Moreirense · 4-0 (W)
Nacional
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Rio Ave · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Alverca · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Estrela · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-12T17:00:00.000Z · Benfica 2-0 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-11-29T18:00:00.000Z · Benfica 2-1 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-03-08T18:00:00.000Z · Benfica 3-0 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-12-19T17:00:00.000Z · Benfica 2-0 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-05-11T17:00:00.000Z · Benfica 3-1 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-01-25T17:00:00.000Z · Benfica 1-1 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
- 2019-02-10T17:30:00.000Z · Benfica 10-0 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
- 2018-09-02T17:30:00.000Z · Benfica 4-0 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
- 2017-02-05T18:00:00.000Z · Benfica 3-0 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
- 2016-08-27T19:30:00.000Z · Benfica 3-1 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Benfica win, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.