Renato Dall'Ara · Referee Marco Di Bello, Italy · Analysis updated 14:32 UTC
Bologna vs Sassuolo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Bologna and 0.82 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Bologna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bologna win
47.2% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bologna home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sassuolo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.7%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–012.2%
- 0–110.0%
- 2–010.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 59.6% vs market 46.7%, edge +12.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 46.7% | 59.6% | 1.68 | +12.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 75.4% | 76.1% | 1.31 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.8% | 71.1% | 1.41 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.20 | 28.7% | 28.9% | 3.46 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.95 | 47.1% | 47.2% | 2.12 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.80 | 24.2% | 23.9% | 4.18 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.75 | 53.8% | 52.8% | 1.89 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 53.3% | 40.4% | 2.48 | -12.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Bologna
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cagliari · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lecce · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Torino · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Napoli · 0-1 (L)
Sassuolo
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Como · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Frosinone · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Monza · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Juventus · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · Bologna 2-2 Sassuolo (Serie A)
- 2026-03-15T14:00:00.000Z · Bologna 1-0 Sassuolo (Serie A)
- 2025-12-28T17:00:00.000Z · Bologna 1-1 Sassuolo (Serie A)
- 2024-02-03T19:45:00.000Z · Bologna 4-2 Sassuolo (Serie A)
- 2023-10-28T13:00:00.000Z · Bologna 1-1 Sassuolo (Serie A)
- 2023-05-08T18:45:00.000Z · Bologna 1-1 Sassuolo (Serie A)
- 2022-11-12T19:45:00.000Z · Bologna 3-0 Sassuolo (Serie A)
- 2022-05-15T10:30:00.000Z · Bologna 1-3 Sassuolo (Serie A)
- 2021-12-22T15:30:00.000Z · Bologna 3-0 Sassuolo (Serie A)
- 2021-02-20T19:45:00.000Z · Bologna 1-1 Sassuolo (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 22 |
| 2 | Lazio | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 18 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
| 5 | Como | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Juventus | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Torino | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Cagliari | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 10 | Napoli | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Atalanta | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Lecce | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 13 | Bologna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Monza | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Genoa | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 17 | Udinese | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 19 | Parma | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -11 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bologna win, at 47.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.