Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos · Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.02 expected goals for Botafogo and 0.83 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Botafogo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Botafogo win
65.1% probability
Expected goals
2.02 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Botafogo home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chapecoense-sc away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.8%
- 1–011.7%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.7%
- 3–07.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 51.1% vs market 47.3%, edge +3.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 47.3% | 51.1% | 1.96 | +3.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.80 | 33.8% | 34.9% | 2.87 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Away | 6.50 | 14.1% | 14.5% | 6.90 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.50 | 20.4% | 20.4% | 4.90 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.40 | 65.5% | 65.1% | 1.54 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.10 | 86.0% | 85.5% | 1.17 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 80.2% | 79.6% | 1.26 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.7% | 48.9% | 2.04 | -3.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Botafogo
- 2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Vasco DA Gama · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirassol · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Gremio · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras · 0-0 (D)
Chapecoense-sc
- 2026-10-07T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Nacional · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Corinthians · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-14T21:00:00.000Z · Botafogo 0-2 Chapecoense-sc (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2026-04-21T20:00:00.000Z · Botafogo 1-0 Chapecoense-sc (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2026-04-18T21:30:00.000Z · Botafogo 4-1 Chapecoense-sc (Serie A)
- 2019-11-27T22:30:00.000Z · Botafogo 1-0 Chapecoense-SC (Serie A)
- 2019-08-26T23:00:00.000Z · Botafogo 0-0 Chapecoense-SC (Serie A)
- 2018-11-15T19:00:00.000Z · Botafogo 1-0 Chapecoense-sc (Serie A)
- 2018-07-26T22:30:00.000Z · Botafogo 1-0 Chapecoense-sc (Serie A)
- 2017-10-11T22:30:00.000Z · Botafogo 2-1 Chapecoense-sc (Serie A)
- 2017-06-18T19:00:00.000Z · Botafogo 2-0 Chapecoense-sc (Serie A)
- 2016-11-16T21:30:00.000Z · Botafogo 0-2 Chapecoense-sc (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Botafogo win, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.