Estádio Nilton Santos · Referee Bruno Arleu de Araujo, Brazil · Analysis updated 19:49 UTC
Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.35 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Vasco DA Gama the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.1% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Botafogo home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vasco DA Gama away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–28.6%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 49.4% vs market 40.3%, edge +9.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 40.3% | 49.4% | 2.02 | +9.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.8% | 73.1% | 1.37 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Home | 2.90 | 31.5% | 31.8% | 3.14 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.9% | 26.8% | 3.73 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.20 | 41.6% | 41.3% | 2.42 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.36 | 68.7% | 68.1% | 1.47 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.57 | 59.5% | 58.6% | 1.71 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.55 | 59.7% | 50.6% | 1.98 | -9.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Botafogo
- 2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Vasco DA Gama · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirassol · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Gremio · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras · 0-0 (D)
Vasco DA Gama
- 2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Remo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Coritiba · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Fe · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-05T00:00:00.000Z · Botafogo 2-1 Vasco DA Gama (Serie A)
- 2026-02-08T21:00:00.000Z · Botafogo 0-2 Vasco DA Gama (Carioca - 1)
- 2025-11-05T22:30:00.000Z · Botafogo 3-0 Vasco DA Gama (Serie A)
- 2025-09-12T00:30:00.000Z · Botafogo 1-1 Vasco DA Gama (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2025-08-28T00:30:00.000Z · Botafogo 1-1 Vasco DA Gama (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2025-07-12T21:30:00.000Z · Botafogo 2-0 Vasco DA Gama (Serie A)
- 2025-02-23T21:30:00.000Z · Botafogo 0-1 Vasco DA Gama (Carioca - 1)
- 2024-11-06T00:30:00.000Z · Botafogo 3-0 Vasco DA Gama (Serie A)
- 2024-06-29T21:30:00.000Z · Botafogo 1-1 Vasco DA Gama (Serie A)
- 2024-02-18T19:00:00.000Z · Botafogo 2-4 Vasco DA Gama (Carioca - 1)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.