Brann Stadion · Referee Marius Grotta, Norway · Analysis updated 15:20 UTC
Brann vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.14 expected goals for Brann and 2.11 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Bodo/Glimt the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bodo/Glimt win
59.6% probability
Expected goals
1.14 – 2.11
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Brann home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bodo/Glimt away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.3%
- 0–28.6%
- 0–18.2%
- 1–36.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.90 (model 40.3% vs market 31.9%, edge +8.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.90 | 31.9% | 40.3% | 2.48 | +8.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.38 | 39.7% | 40.4% | 2.48 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.50 | 20.5% | 20.6% | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.55 | 59.5% | 59.6% | 1.68 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.18 | 80.1% | 80.2% | 1.25 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 4.60 | 20.0% | 19.8% | 5.05 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 80.1% | 79.4% | 1.26 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.36 | 68.1% | 59.7% | 1.68 | -8.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Brann
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Valerenga · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln Red Imps FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Viking · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Start · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Bodo/Glimt · 2-1 (W)
Bodo/Glimt
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kristiansund BK · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rana · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Brann · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandefjord · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayern München · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · Brann 2-1 Bodo/Glimt (Eliteserien)
- 2026-05-24T14:00:00.000Z · Brann 1-3 Bodo/Glimt (Eliteserien)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · Brann 2-2 Bodo/Glimt (NM Cupen)
- 2025-10-29T18:00:00.000Z · Brann 1-2 Bodo/Glimt (Eliteserien)
- 2025-06-21T16:00:00.000Z · Brann 0-3 Bodo/Glimt (Eliteserien)
- 2024-09-22T12:30:00.000Z · Brann 4-1 Bodo/Glimt (Eliteserien)
- 2024-07-07T12:30:00.000Z · Brann 1-5 Bodo/Glimt (Eliteserien)
- 2023-11-26T16:00:00.000Z · Brann 4-2 Bodo/Glimt (Eliteserien)
- 2023-04-29T16:00:00.000Z · Brann 2-2 Bodo/Glimt (Eliteserien)
- 2021-12-05T16:00:00.000Z · Brann 2-2 Bodo/Glimt (Eliteserien)
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 53 |
| 2 | Bodo/Glimt | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 53 |
| 3 | Tromso | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 39 |
| 4 | Molde | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 37 |
| 5 | Rosenborg | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 34 |
| 6 | Lillestrom | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | -1 | 33 |
| 7 | Brann | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 29 |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | -7 | 29 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | -3 | 28 |
| 10 | KFUM Oslo | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -9 | 28 |
| 11 | Ham-Kam | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -13 | 26 |
| 12 | Sandefjord | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | -6 | 24 |
| 13 | Valerenga | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -10 | 23 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | -15 | 21 |
| 15 | Kristiansund BK | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -21 | 19 |
| 16 | Start | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -24 | 16 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bodo/Glimt win, at 59.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.