Stade Pierre de Coubertin · Analysis updated 15:23 UTC
Cannes vs Quevilly Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Cannes and 0.73 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Cannes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cannes win
53.5% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cannes home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Quevilly away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cannes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 27% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Cannes and 0.73 for Quevilly, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.5%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–011.7%
- 0–011.6%
- 2–18.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.75 (model 60.7% vs market 52.2%, edge +8.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.75 | 52.2% | 60.7% | 1.65 | +8.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.67 | 53.1% | 53.5% | 1.87 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 80.3% | 80.7% | 1.24 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.25 | 27.3% | 27.2% | 3.68 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 72.8% | 72.7% | 1.38 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.50 | 19.7% | 19.2% | 5.21 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.00 | 47.0% | 46.4% | 2.16 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.91 | 47.8% | 39.3% | 2.54 | -8.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Cannes
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Quevilly · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Orleans · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bastia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Amiens · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Versailles · 3-0 (W)
Quevilly
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cannes · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Amiens · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Versailles · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Puy Foot · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · A vs La Roche VF · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Roche VF | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Rouen | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Versailles | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 19 |
| 4 | Caen | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 18 |
| 5 | Concarneau | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Le Puy Foot | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Amiens | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
| 8 | Cannes | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 9 | Fleury 91 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 10 | Gobelins | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Quevilly | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Thionville Lusitanos | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Bastia | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 14 | Valenciennes | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Orleans | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | Aubagne | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 7 |
| 17 | Villefranche | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
| 18 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cannes win, at 53.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.