· Analysis updated 18:56 UTC
Caravaggio vs Tubarao Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Caravaggio and 1.40 for Tubarao, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Caravaggio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Caravaggio win
50.4% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Caravaggio home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tubarao away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–06.8%
- 1–26.7%
- 2–06.7%
Recent form
Caravaggio
- 2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventus SC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-22T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Hercílio Luz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-18T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Nação · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-15T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Tubarao · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Jaraguá · 9-0 (W)
Tubarao
- 2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarani de Palhoça · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense-SC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hercílio Luz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-15T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Caravaggio · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Metropolitano · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-15T22:00:00.000Z · Caravaggio 2-1 Tubarao (Catarinense - 2)
- 2026-05-24T18:00:00.000Z · Caravaggio 2-2 Tubarao (Catarinense - 2)
- 2025-10-05T20:00:00.000Z · Caravaggio 0-3 Tubarao (Copa Santa Catarina)
- 2025-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · Caravaggio 2-1 Tubarao (Copa Santa Catarina)
- 2024-07-14T18:00:00.000Z · Caravaggio 2-2 Tubarao (Catarinense - 2)
Catarinense - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blumenau | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 19 |
| 2 | Metropolitano | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Caravaggio | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 18 |
| 4 | Hercílio Luz | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 17 |
| 5 | Tubarao | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Guarani de Palhoça | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 7 | Fluminense-SC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 8 | Nação | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 9 |
| 9 | Juventus SC | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 10 | Jaraguá | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -28 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Caravaggio win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.