Cardiff City Stadium · Referee John Busby, England · Analysis updated 20:38 UTC
Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.42 for Sheffield Utd, a combined total of 2.84. That distribution gives Cardiff the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.6% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cardiff home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sheffield Utd away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cardiff to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 25% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Cardiff and 1.42 for Sheffield Utd, a combined 2.84 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–18.3%
- 1–08.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.42 | 66.4% | 68.3% | 1.46 | +1.9 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.30 | 40.6% | 42.5% | 2.35 | +1.9 |
| Match result | Home | 2.56 | 36.5% | 37.5% | 2.67 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.56 | 36.5% | 37.5% | 2.67 | +1.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.10 | 45.2% | 46.0% | 2.17 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.4% | 75.0% | 1.33 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.48 | 62.8% | 62.6% | 1.60 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.48 | 62.8% | 62.6% | 1.60 | -0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.73 | 54.8% | 54.0% | 1.85 | -0.8 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.80 | 33.6% | 31.7% | 3.15 | -1.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 59.4% | 57.5% | 1.74 | -1.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.45 | 27.1% | 25.1% | 3.98 | -2.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Cardiff
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Blackburn · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Charlton · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolton · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stoke City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Portsmouth · 0-2 (L)
Sheffield Utd
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Stoke City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Fleetwood Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Blackburn · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolves | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.