Carlisle vs Boston United Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Carlisle and 1.45 for Boston United, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Carlisle the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Carlisle win

55.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.25 – 1.45

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Carlisle home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Boston United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Carlisle to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 20% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Carlisle and 1.45 for Boston United, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Carlisle win56%

Draw20%

Boston United win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals51%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

2–19.1%
1–18.1%
3–16.8%
2–26.6%
2–06.3%

Recent form

Carlisle

2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Solihull Moors · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tamworth · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Kidderminster Harriers · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aldershot Town · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs AFC Fylde · 2-0 (W)

Boston United

2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Eastleigh · 2-4 (L)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Scunthorpe · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Southampton U21 · 5-6 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Southend · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Yeovil Town · 0-6 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	14	12	2	0	25	38
2	Harrogate Town	14	10	1	3	14	31
3	Southend	14	8	4	2	12	28
4	Worthing	14	8	3	3	10	27
5	Altrincham	14	9	0	5	2	27
6	Yeovil Town	14	7	4	3	16	25
7	AFC Fylde	14	7	2	5	2	23
8	FC Halifax Town	14	6	3	5	7	21
9	Barrow	13	6	3	4	6	21
10	AFC Hornchurch	14	7	0	7	-5	21
11	Carlisle	14	5	5	4	4	20
12	Kidderminster Harriers	14	5	5	4	2	20
13	Woking	14	5	3	6	1	18
14	Aldershot Town	14	5	3	6	1	18
15	Eastleigh	14	5	3	6	-4	18
16	Sutton Utd	14	5	3	6	-6	18
17	Forest Green	12	4	3	5	-3	15
18	Wealdstone	14	4	3	7	-6	15
19	Hartlepool	14	5	0	9	-6	15
20	Tamworth	13	4	2	7	-9	14
21	Boston United	14	3	3	8	-10	12
22	Scunthorpe	13	3	1	9	-7	10
23	Solihull Moors	14	2	1	11	-23	7
24	Gateshead	13	1	1	11	-23	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Carlisle win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.