· Analysis updated 19:59 UTC
Casa Pia vs Arouca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.54 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives Arouca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Arouca win
57.9% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 1.54
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Casa Pia home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Arouca away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arouca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 17% / 26% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.68 goals for Casa Pia and 1.54 for Arouca, a combined 2.22 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.6%
- 0–212.8%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–010.8%
- 1–28.8%
Recent form
Casa Pia
- 2026-10-24T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alpendorada · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Santa Clara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Estoril · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-4 (L)
Arouca
- 2026-10-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Alverca · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs CF Os Belenenses · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-11T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Estrela · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Clara · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 11 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Arouca win, at 57.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.