Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior · Referee Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal · Analysis updated 21:37 UTC
Casa Pia vs Benfica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.66 expected goals for Casa Pia and 2.92 for Benfica, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Benfica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Benfica win
82.9% probability
Expected goals
0.66 – 2.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Casa Pia home form
0 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Benfica away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
17%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
94%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–211.9%
- 0–311.6%
- 0–48.4%
- 0–18.1%
- 1–27.8%
Recent form
Casa Pia
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Estoril · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Moreirense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-24T19:15:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 0-2 (L)
Benfica
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Porto · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Milan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs GIL Vicente · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:45:00.000Z · A vs Moreirense · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-17T19:15:00.000Z · Casa Pia 0-7 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2026-04-06T19:45:00.000Z · Casa Pia 1-1 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-11-09T20:30:00.000Z · Casa Pia 2-2 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-01-25T18:00:00.000Z · Casa Pia 3-1 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-08-17T19:30:00.000Z · Casa Pia 0-3 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-03-17T18:00:00.000Z · Casa Pia 0-1 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-10-28T17:00:00.000Z · Casa Pia 1-1 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-02-04T18:00:00.000Z · Casa Pia 0-3 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-08-13T17:00:00.000Z · Casa Pia 0-1 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Benfica win, at 82.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.